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The Canary Islands affected by Turkish Competitiveness in the German market

Programmed air seats from Germany to the Canary Islands between March and September have decreased by 18%, while simultaneously in some Turkish destinations there has been a rise of up to 36%.

In the framework of the ITB Berlin Travel Trade Show, Mabrian Technologies has published a revealing study on the current loss of competitiveness by certain Spanish holiday destinations with the German market. Meanwhile, Turkish destinations are growing steadily.

According to the latest data (updated on 1st of March), the trend observed in 2018, in which the majority of tour operators in Germany decided to increase the influx to Turkish destinations to the detriment of classic Spanish beach holiday destinations such as the islands, is settling in.

In this context, it can be noted that the Canary Islands are suffering the most as a result of the drop in demand from Germany. This is reflected directly in the loss of 320,000 programmed air seats (-18.25%) from Germany in comparison with the same period in 2018.

Focusing on the main companies affected by this decrease, what can be seen is that low-cost companies are the ones decreasing most. Most significantly, Germania, whose downfall meant the loss of 200,000 air seats, and SunExpress Deutschland who has programmed 93,000 fewer air seats in 2019. Ryanair is also programming 62,000 less seats this year which are not being compensated for by the increase of air seats on its subsidiary Laudamotion. The latter flies between Germany and the Canary Islands and represents more than 38,500 seats.

The origin airports most affected by this remarkable situation are Frankfurt (-38,000 seats), Tegel (-36,500), Cologne (-34,600) and Stuttgart (-29,000 seats).

This situation is the complete opposite of the evolution of the demand and scheduled air seats from Germany to the Turkish Mediterranean coastal destinations. Thus, destinations such as Antalya and Marmaris have increased their air seat availability; Antalya by 16% (+300,000 seats),  and Marmaris by 37% (+22,500 seats), compared to the same period in 2018.

Additionally, in order to complement this analysis of the German market, Mabrian Technologies wanted to take a deeper look at the profile of German tourists visiting these different destinations. To that end, they have analysed 1.89 million tourist mentions on Social Networks between 1st March and 30th September 2018, relating to the Canary Islands tourist destinations (Tenerife, Gran Canaria, Lanzarote, Fuerteventura, El Hierro, La Palma and La Gomera) and the Turkish Mediterranean destinations (Antalya and Marmaris).

The tourism intelligence platform‘s analysis on perceptions and interests (through artificial intelligence based on natural language processing), showed that the profile of Germans who visited both the Turkish and Canary Islands destinations had very similar holiday motivation patterns.

The main factor is the Sun and beach product which all these destinations have in common, followed by the Natural and Active products.

This homogeneity between these competing destinations makes the customer sensitive to flight prices, resulting in an effortless switch between holiday destinations. This is usually guided by the interests of intermediary companies such as tour operators.

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