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Summer forecast for Kenya and South Africa

Last week our Business Development Manager, Anna Borduzha, spoke virtually at the Sustainable Tourism Africa Summit 2022 event, which took place in Kenya.

As part of her presentation to the attendees Anna conducted an analysis of the summer forecast for Kenya and  its competitor, South Africa

The event wasfocused on the sustainability of tourism and travel, and Anna  also dedicated her speech to talk about how big data helps to build a more respectful and sustainable tourism model.

For this summer, Mabrian has analyzed different data  from the two countries and has concluded that the air capacity of Kenya and South Africa is still below the pre-pandemic period, with  27% less capacity for Kenya and 24% less  for South Africa.  

However, regarding the recovery of international air capacity, this is going faster in the case of Kenya with only 25% less compared to 2019, whilst in South Africa the recovery of international capacity is still 36% less. 

Regarding air capacity in the domestic market, Mabrian sees an opposite trend: South Africa shows a better recovery at only 19% below 2019, whilst Kenya is 30% below when it comes to domestic air capacity. 

Looking at source markets in the case of Kenya, air capacity continues to be below the pre-pandemic period in almost all source markets. Germany is the international source market that shows the best connectivity with Kenya during 2022 when compared to 2019, whilst  in South Africa the German source market has 49% less connectivity than in 2019. 

In the case of South Africa, a similar trend is observed. The only market that gains in capacity with this destination is the United States, with 6% more connectivity with South Africa (whilstin Kenya connectivity from the United States is 28% below that of 2019). 

Based on the absolute number of air ticket searches, Mabrian has found that both Kenya and South Africa share the same top five international source markets that want to travel to their countries this summer. Relative demand based on what we at Mabrian call ‘share of search’ is an indicator that measures the global competitive position of a destination for a specific source market. Here we see that the United States, the United Arab Emirates and France show a stronger relative demand towards Kenya than to South Africa. On the other hand, from the German market there is more interest in visiting South Africa than Kenya during this summer. For their part, the interest of the British in visiting the two countries is roughly the same.  

Regarding the length of stay, visitors from the United Kingdom and the United States are the ones that show a greater predisposition to enjoy longer stays than the rest of the markets of origin looked at. 

Whilst with regards to hotel prices,  rooms are more expensive in Kenya than in South Africa in all categories; and in the case of  4-star hotels, the difference is even more significant, with prices 105% higher than in South Africa.