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COVID-19 impact on tourism in Brazil

Collapse in the tourist Perception of Security Index, particularly affecting closest markets such as Argentina and Chile.

On a global scale, Brazil is one of the countries most affected by the COVID-19 crisis. The health crisis effects are deeply impacting the country’s tourism sector.

Together, Mabrian Technologies and their Travel Intelligence Platform and the consulting firm Interamerican Network have carried out a study regarding the effects of the crisis on confidence levels and air connectivity between the country and its main international markets.

Evolution of the tourist Perception of Security Index                                   

Mabrian’s platform is capable of analysing millions of spontaneous tourist mentions on Social Media (Big Data) from both visitors as well as potential visitors to a destination. With this data and using Natural Language Processing and Artificial Intelligence Techniques, they calculate a series of key indicators in terms of perception, satisfaction and interest with regards to a tourist destination.

Amongst these indicators, the Perception of Security Index (PSI) measures the level of confidence shown by different markets regarding a destination and how it is affected by security events (violence, attacks, civil insecurity, health threats, etc.).

tourist Perception of Security Index

In the current setting, Brazil’s PSI has been seriously affected by the situation caused by the pandemic in the country. Starting from a maximum value of 100 points, the index shows that there is a confidence drop of over 40% for all of the markets analysed between the 1st February and the 17th June.

However, not all markets are affected equally. Indeed, it seems that Argentina and Chile are the two markets showing higher sensitivity towards the situation, with a bigger drop in PSI. On the other hand, amongst the markets analysed, the US market shows a lesser degree of sensitivity, despite the drop in confidence still being highly relevant (-42%).

In terms of the Spanish market, what stands out is the profound impact to confidence levels at the beginning of February and March followed by an improvement that brings Spain back to the second less affected market amongst the markets analysed.

Evolution of Air Connectivity

Another of the profound effects of the crisis caused by COVID-19 is the interruption of air connectivity between Brazil and its main markets. This is a key aspect needed in the recovery of tourism, which Mabrian’s Travel Intelligence platform is constantly monitoring.

Air Connectivity

Taking into account the 11 main airports in Brazil and the published flight schedules for airlines up until 16th June 2020, air connectivity is close to null for June in comparison to the previous year.

In July, modest signs of recovery can be seen in comparison to July 2019, with the Spanish market showing a clear superiority.

From August onwards, flight seats’ schedules show clear signs of recovery for almost all markets analysed, albeit still maintaining a 20-40% difference in comparison to flight seats in 2019. The clear exception here is Argentina, which, despite recovering some seats in August, still shows over 70% less flight seats in comparison to August 2019.

Monitoring this type of indicator in real-time is key to measure the impact of COVID-19 on the tourism sector and to prepare the best recovery strategy possible. The analysis of global data can help to reduce uncertainty in the ever-changing environment faced by the tourism sector.

For more information:

Mabrian Technologies: www.mabrian.com/es

Carlos Cendra (CMO) carlos@mabrian.com

Interamerican Network: https://www.interamericanetwork.com

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