According to a new analysis by Mabrian and Data Appeal, global air capacity analysis reveals significant decline in U.S. routes, with more moderate impacts observed in Latin America.
The escalation of the Iran conflict has triggered a substantial contraction in air connectivity between key hubs in the Americas and the Middle East, according to the latest Mabrian and Data Appeal (Almawave, Almaviva Group) analysis of scheduled airline capacity. The findings highlight a pronounced reduction in available seats from the United States, alongside more moderate but notable declines in Brazil and limited disruption in Mexico.
The analysis compares scheduled seat capacity for travel between April 14 and May 31, 2026, as recorded one week prior to the start of the conflict and against the most recent available schedules. The study focuses on routes connecting, with direct flights, the United States, Mexico, and Brazil with countries in Western Asia.
Air connectivity between the United States and the Middle East has experienced a significant contraction, with seat availability from the 14 U.S. airports to Middle East destinations declining by -59.1% since the onset of the conflict.
This reduction reflects widespread adjustments across major carriers operating transcontinental routes, including route cancellations by United Airlines, American Airlines, and Delta Air Lines, alongside capacity realignments implemented by Middle Eastern carriers. Among them, Qatar Airways records the sharpest contraction, with seat availability from U.S. airports dropping by -60.5% since the beginning of the conflict. This is followed by Royal Jordanian and Emirates, showing declines of -23.7% and -21% respectively, while Etihad Airways (-18.4%) and Etihad Airways (-18.4%) also report notable reductions, albeit to a lesser extent.
As explained by Carlos Cendra, Director of Marketing and Communications at Mabrian: “The scale of the decline underscores the sensitivity of long-haul international travel to geopolitical instability, particularly in corridors reliant on complex airspace operations and demand confidence.” Cendra also underscores the “critical role” these corridors play in business travel, noting that this segment has been “particularly affected by the disruption of these routes and key air connectivity hubs.”
Secondary Impact in Brazil and Mexico connectivity to Middle East
While the United States has experienced the most significant disruption, the impact extends—albeit unevenly—to other major Latin American markets. Brazil has recorded declines across its key Middle East connections, particularly on routes linking São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro with major regional hubs such as Istanbul, Doha, and Dubai.
Among the main operators connecting Brazil with Middle East destinations, seat availability in Emirates direct routes from Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo to Dubai has decreased by -10.2%. The São Paulo–Doha route, operated by Qatar Airways, has seen a steep -57.9% reduction; and Turkish Airlines flight connecting São Paulo to Istanbul shows a more moderate decline of -2.3%
Mexico, by contrast, shows a more limited impact. Its direct connectivity to the Middle East is currently restricted to a single route operated by Turkish Airlines, resulting in comparatively minor overall changes in seat capacity, by -3.2% since the conflict started.
“Beyond the current volatility affecting international travel, fuel costs are also an important factor to consider when evaluating demand dynamics. Scheduled air capacity will be impacted and readjusted as the result of rising travel costs, leading travellers from the US, Mexico, and Brazil to reconsider destination choices and potentially shifting their interest toward alternative domestic and regional options that offer more competitive or stable pricing,” Mabrian expert indicates.